Department of Environmental Sciences

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Seminar Abstracts
Environmental Sciences Seminar Abstract            

  Exploring the modulation of tropical cyclone activity by ENSO and MJO
Suzana Camargo
Colombia University

Tropical cyclone activity is modulated by on seasonal scales by ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and on intra-seasonal scales by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). We examine how different environmental factors contribute to the modulation of ENSO and MJO. A genesis potential indexdeveloped by Emanuel and Nolan is used. Composite anomalies of the genesis potential index are produced for El Niño nd La Niña years separately. These composites qualitatively replicate the observed interannual variations of the observed frequency and location of genesis in several different basins. Specific factors that have more influence than others in different regions can be identified. A similar approach is used for the different phases of the MJO. Interestingly, the regional dependence is not as strong in determining the environmental factors that are most important in the MJO composites. A probabilistic clustering method, based on a regression mixture model, is used to describe tropical cyclone tracks. The association of specific track types with ENSO and MJO will be discussed.

Last updated: 03/09/2009