DATE/TIME: Friday, October 11, 2024, 2:30 pm
Andra Garner
Rowan University
Variations in Tropical Cyclone Peak Intensification Rates in a Warmer World
Tropical cyclones (i.e., hurricanes) are amongst the most damaging natural hazards to impact many coastlines around the world. Quickly intensifying tropical cyclones are exceptionally hazardous for coastal communities, as such storms not only create the potential for more catastrophic storm damage, but also greater challenges in forecasting and preparing for storm impacts. In this presentation, basin-wide analyses of observed maximum changes in wind speed for Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1971 to 2020 will show that Atlantic tropical cyclone intensification rates have undergone significant changes as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have warmed the planet and oceans. Mean maximum tropical cyclone intensification rates are up to 28.7% greater in a modern era (2001–2020) compared to a historical era (1971–1990). In the modern era, it is about as likely for tropical cyclones to intensify by at least 50 kts in 24 h, and more likely for tropical cyclones to intensify by at least 20 kts within 24 h than it was for tropical cyclones to intensify by these amounts in 36 h in the historical era. Finally, the number of TCs that intensify from a Category 1 hurricane (or weaker) into a major hurricane (Category 3 or greater) within 36 h has more than doubled in the modern era compared to the historical era. Significance tests suggest that it would have been statistically impossible to observe the number of TCs that intensified in this way during the modern era if rates of intensification had not changed from the historical era. These findings illustrate a vital need to not only work towards climate mitigation to limit future warming and thus additional changes in TC intensification rates, but also for emergency preparedness plans and resilience measures that will allow our coastlines to adapt to TCs that have already begun to exhibit increased rates of strengthening.
Seminar Host:
Tony Broccoli
Department of Environmental Sciences, SEBS, Rutgers University